Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00pm CT · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN · ESPN+Final
NEV
Nevada Wolf Pack · Mountain West · 1-2 · Away
FPI -8.5 · rank 105 · No CFBD row
-3.5 (-115)
-180
MTSU
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · C-USA · 2-1 · Home
FPI -13.2 · rank 120 · No CFBD row
+3.5 (-105)
+150
Market vs model
Spread
NEV -3.5
MTSU +3.5 (-105)
NEV -3.5 (-115)
NEV -3.5 (-115)
Model
NEV -2.2
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NEV
MTSU +150 · NEV -180
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML loss
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MTSU rating -13.2, NEV rating -8.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MTSU.
- Predicted margin is NEV by 2.2.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model away 2.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap -4.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is NEV, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NEV
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MTSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model away 2.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap -4.7; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.