Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00pm CT · Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO · MW+Final
DUQ
Duquesne Dukes · 0-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+31.5 (-110)
+1600
AFA
Air Force Falcons · Mountain West · 1-0 · Home
FPI -5.9 · rank 94 · No CFBD row
-31.5 (-110)
-4000
Market vs model
Spread
AF -31.5
AFA -31.5 (-110)
DUQ +31.5 (-110)
DUQ +31.5 (-110)
Model
AFA -8.6
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
AFA
AFA -4000 · DUQ +1600
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- AFA rating -5.9, DUQ rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to AFA.
- Predicted margin is AFA by 8.6.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 8.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 6.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is AFA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
DUQ
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
AFA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 8.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 6.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.