Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 9:30pm CT · Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV · CWFinal
MTST
Montana State Bobcats · 3-0 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
-4.5 (-115)
-218
NEV
Nevada Wolf Pack · Mountain West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -8.5 · rank 105 · No CFBD row
+4.5 (-105)
+180
Market vs model
Spread
MTST -4.5
NEV +4.5 (-105)
MTST -4.5 (-115)
MTST -4.5 (-115)
Model
NEV -6
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NEV
NEV +180 · MTST -218
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML loss
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NEV rating -8.5, MTST rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NEV.
- Predicted margin is NEV by 6.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is NEV, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MTST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NEV
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.