Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 9:00pm CT · Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO · FS1Final
NDSU
North Dakota State Bison · Mountain West · 3-0 · Away
FPI 0.3 · rank 65 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-115)
-122
AFA
Air Force Falcons · Mountain West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -5.9 · rank 94 · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-105)
+102
Market vs model
Spread
NDSU -1.5
AFA +1.5 (-105)
NDSU -1.5 (-115)
NDSU -1.5 (-115)
Model
NDSU -3.6
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NDSU
AFA +102 · NDSU -122
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- AFA rating -5.9, NDSU rating 0.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to AFA.
- Predicted margin is NDSU by 3.6.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model away 3.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap -6.1; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is NDSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NDSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
AFA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model away 3.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap -6.1; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.