Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00pm CT · Huskie Stadium · Dekalb, IL · MW+Final
ILST
Illinois State Redbirds · 3-0 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
-2.5 (-120)
-148
NIU
Northern Illinois Huskies · Mountain West · 0-2 · Home
FPI -17 · rank 129 · No CFBD row
+2.5 (+100)
+124
Market vs model
Spread
ILST -2.5
NIU +2.5 (+100)
ILST -2.5 (-120)
ILST -2.5 (-120)
Model
ILST -2.5
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ILST
NIU +124 · ILST -148
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NIU rating -17, ILST rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NIU.
- Predicted margin is ILST by 2.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model away 2.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap -5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is ILST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ILST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NIU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model away 2.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap -5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.