Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:30pm CT · Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV · FS19:30pm CT
AFA
Air Force Falcons · Mountain West · 1-1 · Away
FPI -5.9 · rank 94 · No CFBD row
-5.5 (-108)
-230
NEV
Nevada Wolf Pack · Mountain West · 1-2 · Home
FPI -8.5 · rank 105 · No CFBD row
+5.5 (-112)
+190
Market vs model
Spread
AF -5.5
NEV +5.5 (-112)
AFA -5.5 (-108)
AFA -5.5 (-108)
Model
AFA -0.1
Edge 5.4 pts NEV
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
NEV +190 · AFA -230
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallStrong
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NEV rating -8.5, AFA rating -5.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NEV.
- Predicted margin is AFA by 0.1.
- Edge is 5.4 points toward NEV.
- Edge 5.4 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -2.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
AFA
- Lvs NDSU 38-32 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs DUQ 34-0 · Sat, Sep 5
- W@ CSU 42-21 · Fri, Nov 28
- Lvs UNM 20-3 · Sat, Nov 22
- L@ CONN 26-16 · Sat, Nov 15
NEV
- L@ MTSU 27-20 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs MTST 20-7 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs WKU 49-14 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs UNLV 42-17 · Sat, Nov 29
- W@ WYO 13-7 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.