Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 1:00pm CT · Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA · ESPN+1:00pm CT
NIU
Northern Illinois Huskies · Mountain West · 0-3 · Away
FPI -17 · rank 129 · No CFBD row
+10.5 (-112)
+295
GAST
Georgia State Panthers · Sun Belt · 2-1 · Home
FPI -8.8 · rank 107 · No CFBD row
-10.5 (-108)
-375
Market vs model
Spread
GAST -10.5
GAST -10.5 (-108)
NIU +10.5 (-112)
NIU +10.5 (-112)
Model
GAST -10.8
Edge 0.3 pts GAST
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
GAST
GAST -375 · NIU +295
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- GAST rating -8.8, NIU rating -17.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to GAST.
- Predicted margin is GAST by 10.8.
- Edge is 0.3 points toward GAST.
- Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.3; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is GAST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NIU
- L@ ARIZ 42-17 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs ILST 28-24 · Sat, Sep 12
- L@ IOWA 40-0 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs KENT 35-31 · Fri, Nov 28
- Lvs WMU 35-19 · Tue, Nov 18
GAST
- L@ UCF 44-30 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ KENN 31-17 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs NCAT 59-10 · Fri, Sep 4
- L@ ODU 27-10 · Sat, Nov 29
- L@ TROY 31-19 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.3; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.