Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Aug 29 · 6:00pm CT · Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL · CWFinal
NMSU
New Mexico State Aggies · C-USA · 0-1 · Away
FPI -13.5 · rank 123 · No CFBD row
+30.5 (-102)
+2200
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-0 · Home
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
-30.5 (-118)
-8000
Market vs model
Spread
FSU -30.5
FSU -30.5 (-118)
NMSU +30.5 (-102)
NMSU +30.5 (-102)
Model
FSU -23.8
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
FSU
FSU -8000 · NMSU +2200
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- FSU rating 7.8, NMSU rating -13.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to FSU.
- Predicted margin is FSU by 23.8.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 23.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 21.3; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is FSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NMSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
FSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 23.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 21.3; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.