Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 10:59pm CT · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI · MW+Final
NMSU
New Mexico State Aggies · C-USA · 1-2 · Away
FPI -13.5 · rank 123 · No CFBD row
+7.5 (-105)
+270
HAW
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors · Mountain West · 1-2 · Home
FPI -8.5 · rank 106 · No CFBD row
-7.5 (-115)
-340
Market vs model
Spread
HAW -7.5
HAW -7.5 (-115)
NMSU +7.5 (-105)
NMSU +7.5 (-105)
Model
HAW -7.5
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
HAW
HAW -340 · NMSU +270
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- HAW rating -8.5, NMSU rating -13.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to HAW.
- Predicted margin is HAW by 7.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 7.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 5; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is HAW, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NMSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
HAW
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 7.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 5; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.