Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 11:00am CT · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green, OH · ESPN+Final
TAR
Tarleton State Texans · 2-0 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-108)
+105
BGSU
Bowling Green Falcons · MAC · 0-1 · Home
FPI -23.2 · rank 136 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-112)
-125
Market vs model
Spread
BGSU -1.5
BGSU -1.5 (-112)
TAR +1.5 (-108)
TAR +1.5 (-108)
Model
TAR -8.7
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TAR
BGSU -125 · TAR +105
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- BGSU rating -23.2, TAR rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to BGSU.
- Predicted margin is TAR by 8.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model away 8.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap -11.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is TAR, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
TAR
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
BGSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model away 8.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap -11.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.