Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 2:30pm CT · Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH · ESPN+Final
CCSU
Central Connecticut Blue Devils · 0-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+36.5 (+100)
+4000
TOL
Toledo Rockets · MAC · 1-1 · Home
FPI -1.8 · rank 77 · No CFBD row
-36.5 (-120)
-50000
Market vs model
Spread
TOL -36.5
TOL -36.5 (-120)
CCSU +36.5 (+100)
CCSU +36.5 (+100)
Model
TOL -12.7
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TOL
TOL -50000 · CCSU +4000
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TOL rating -1.8, CCSU rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TOL.
- Predicted margin is TOL by 12.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 12.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 10.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is TOL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
CCSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TOL
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 12.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 10.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.