Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

← The board
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00pm CT · Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL · ESPN+Final
OHIO
Ohio Bobcats · MAC · 1-2 · Away
FPI -10.2 · rank 112 · No CFBD row
+7 (-115)
+220
USA
South Alabama Jaguars · Sun Belt · 2-1 · Home
FPI -7.4 · rank 99 · No CFBD row
-7 (-105)
-270

Market vs model

Spread
USA -7
USA -7 (-105)
OHIO +7 (-115)
Model
USA -5.4
Edge
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
USA
USA -270 · OHIO +220
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • USA rating -7.4, OHIO rating -10.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to USA.
  • Predicted margin is USA by 5.4.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 5.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is USA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

OHIO

FPI -10.2 · rank 112 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

USA

FPI -7.4 · rank 99 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model home 5.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.5).

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.