Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Sep 4 · 6:00pm CT · Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA · ESPN+Final
NCAT
North Carolina A&T Aggies · 0-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+28.5 (-115)
+1600
GAST
Georgia State Panthers · Sun Belt · 1-0 · Home
FPI -8.8 · rank 107 · No CFBD row
-28.5 (-105)
-4000
Market vs model
Spread
GAST -28.5
GAST -28.5 (-105)
NCAT +28.5 (-115)
NCAT +28.5 (-115)
Model
GAST -5.7
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
GAST
GAST -4000 · NCAT +1600
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- GAST rating -8.8, NCAT rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to GAST.
- Predicted margin is GAST by 5.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 5.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is GAST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NCAT
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
GAST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 5.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.