Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:45pm CT · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN · ESPN+Final
MUR
Murray State Racers · 0-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+22.5 (-110)
+1000
MTSU
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · C-USA · 1-0 · Home
FPI -13.2 · rank 120 · No CFBD row
-22.5 (-110)
-1800
Market vs model
Spread
MTSU -22.5
MTSU -22.5 (-110)
MUR +22.5 (-110)
MUR +22.5 (-110)
Model
MTSU -1.3
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
MTSU -1800 · MUR +1000
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MTSU rating -13.2, MUR rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MTSU.
- Predicted margin is MTSU by 1.3.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 1.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MUR
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MTSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 1.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.