Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00pm CT · Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR · ESPN+Final
WES
West Georgia Wolves · 0-3 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+31.5 (-108)
+3000
ARST
Arkansas State Red Wolves · Sun Belt · 1-1 · Home
FPI -10.2 · rank 111 · No CFBD row
-31.5 (-112)
-10000
Market vs model
Spread
ARST -31.5
ARST -31.5 (-112)
WES +31.5 (-108)
WES +31.5 (-108)
Model
ARST -4.3
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ARST
ARST -10000 · WES +3000
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ARST rating -10.2, WES rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ARST.
- Predicted margin is ARST by 4.3.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 4.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 1.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is ARST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
WES
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ARST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 4.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 1.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.