Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00pm CT · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL · ESPN+Final
ALST
Alabama State Hornets · 2-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+23.5 (-102)
+1100
TROY
Troy Trojans · Sun Belt · 2-0 · Home
FPI -6 · rank 95 · No CFBD row
-23.5 (-118)
-2100
Market vs model
Spread
TROY -23.5
TROY -23.5 (-118)
ALST +23.5 (-102)
ALST +23.5 (-102)
Model
TROY -8.5
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TROY
TROY -2100 · ALST +1100
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TROY rating -6, ALST rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TROY.
- Predicted margin is TROY by 8.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 8.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 6; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is TROY, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ALST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TROY
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 8.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 6; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.