Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00pm CT · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS · ESPN+Final
ALCN
Alcorn State Braves · 1-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+20.5 (-115)
+900
USM
Southern Miss Golden Eagles · Sun Belt · 1-0 · Home
FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row
-20.5 (-105)
-1600

Market vs model

Spread
USM -20.5
USM -20.5 (-105)
ALCN +20.5 (-115)
Model
USM -1.4
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
USM -1600 · ALCN +900
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • USM rating -13.1, ALCN rating -12.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to USM.
  • Predicted margin is USM by 1.4.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 1.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

ALCN

No FPI row · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

USM

FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model home 1.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.