Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Oct 16 · 11:00pm CT · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS11:00pm CT
ARST
Arkansas State Red Wolves · Sun Belt · 1-2 · Away
FPI -10.2 · rank 111 · No CFBD row
—
—
USM
Southern Miss Golden Eagles · Sun Belt · 1-2 · Home
FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row
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—

Market vs model

Spread
—
USM —
ARST —
Model
ARST -0.4
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
USM — · ARST —
Total — — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • USM rating -13.1, ARST rating -10.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to USM.
  • Predicted margin is ARST by 0.4.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model away 0.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

ARST

FPI -10.2 · rank 111 · No CFBD row

  1. L@ TCU 31-7 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs WES 52-7 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. L@ MEM 42-24 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Wvs MOST 34-28 · Thu, Dec 18
  5. W@ APP 30-29 · Sat, Nov 29

USM

FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row

  1. Lvs CONN 48-20 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ AUB 43-8 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs ALCN 49-3 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs WKU 27-16 · Tue, Dec 23
  5. Lvs TROY 28-18 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model away 0.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.5).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.