Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

← The board
Fri, Oct 23 · 11:00pm CT · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS11:00pm CT
UL
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns · Sun Belt · 2-1 · Away
FPI -5.5 · rank 89 · No CFBD row
USM
Southern Miss Golden Eagles · Sun Belt · 1-2 · Home
FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row

Market vs model

Spread
USM
UL
Model
UL -5.1
Edge
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
UL
USM · UL
Total — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • USM rating -13.1, UL rating -5.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to USM.
  • Predicted margin is UL by 5.1.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model away 5.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -7.6; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is UL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

UL

FPI -5.5 · rank 89 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs UAB 21-14 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ USC 49-30 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs LAM 38-7 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs DEL 20-13 · Wed, Dec 17
  5. Wvs ULM 30-27 OT · Sat, Nov 29

USM

FPI -13.1 · rank 118 · No CFBD row

  1. Lvs CONN 48-20 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ AUB 43-8 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs ALCN 49-3 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs WKU 27-16 · Tue, Dec 23
  5. Lvs TROY 28-18 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model away 5.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -7.6; home field +2.5).

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.