Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

← The board
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00pm CT · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY · ESPN+6:00pm CT
MERC
Mercyhurst Lakers · 1-3 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+38.5 (-110)
WKU
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · C-USA · 0-3 · Home
FPI -14.3 · rank 124 · No CFBD row
-38.5 (-110)

Market vs model

Spread
WKU -38.5
WKU -38.5 (-110)
MERC +38.5 (-110)
Model
WKU -0.2
Edge 38.3 pts MERC
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
WKU · MERC
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • WKU rating -14.3, MERC rating -12.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to WKU.
  • Predicted margin is WKU by 0.2.
  • Edge is 38.3 points toward MERC.
  • Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap -2.3; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

MERC

No FPI row · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs GLN 49-20 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ UNM 70-7 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. L@ NMSU 51-14 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. L@ YSU 43-10 · Thu, Aug 27
  5. L@ CCSU 35-28 · Sat, Nov 22

WKU

FPI -14.3 · rank 124 · No CFBD row

  1. L@ IU 38-0 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ UGA 70-20 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. L@ NEV 49-14 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Wvs USM 27-16 · Tue, Dec 23
  5. L@ JVST 37-34 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap -2.3; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.