Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00pm CT · Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM · ESPN+Final
MERC
Mercyhurst Lakers · 0-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+29.5 (-110)
+2200
NMSU
New Mexico State Aggies · C-USA · 1-1 · Home
FPI -13.5 · rank 123 · No CFBD row
-29.5 (-110)
-8000
Market vs model
Spread
NMSU -29.5
NMSU -29.5 (-110)
MERC +29.5 (-110)
MERC +29.5 (-110)
Model
NMSU -1
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
NMSU -8000 · MERC +2200
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NMSU rating -13.5, MERC rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NMSU.
- Predicted margin is NMSU by 1.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MERC
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NMSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -1.5; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.