Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Nov 28 · 1:00pm CT · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Murfreesboro, TN1:00pm CT
NMSU
New Mexico State Aggies · C-USA · 1-2 · Away
FPI -13.5 · rank 123 · No CFBD row
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MTSU
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · C-USA · 2-1 · Home
FPI -13.2 · rank 120 · No CFBD row
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Market vs model
Spread
—
MTSU —
NMSU —
NMSU —
Model
MTSU -2.8
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MTSU
MTSU — · NMSU —
Total — — no O/U pick
Total — — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MTSU rating -13.2, NMSU rating -13.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MTSU.
- Predicted margin is MTSU by 2.8.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 2.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 0.3; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MTSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NMSU
- L@ HAW 29-19 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs MERC 51-14 · Sat, Sep 5
- L@ FSU 34-17 · Sat, Aug 29
- Lvs MTSU 31-24 OT · Sat, Nov 29
- W@ UTEP 34-31 · Sat, Nov 22
MTSU
- Wvs NEV 27-20 · Sat, Sep 19
- L@ MRSH 28-26 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs MUR 38-14 · Sat, Sep 5
- W@ NMSU 31-24 OT · Sat, Nov 29
- Wvs SHSU 31-17 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 2.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 0.3; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.