Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
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Wed, Sep 9 · 7:20pm CT · Lumen Field · Seattle, WA · NBCFinal
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 0-1 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (+100)
+142
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 1-0 · Home
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-120)
-170
Lumen Field at kickoff: 63°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 9 mph, 2% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SEA -3
SEA -3 (-120)
NE +3 (+100)
Model
SEA -3.2
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SEA
SEA -170 · NE +142
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • SEA rating 2.8, NE rating 2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to SEA.
  • Predicted margin is SEA by 3.2.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 3.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 0.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is SEA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

SEA

FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 3.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 0.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML