Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00pm CT · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA · FOXFinal
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-1 · Away
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+6.5 (-108)
+240
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-0 · Home
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
-6.5 (-112)
-298
Acrisure Stadium at kickoff: 60°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 11 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
PIT -6.5
PIT -6.5 (-112)
ATL +6.5 (-108)
ATL +6.5 (-108)
Model
PIT -4.8
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
PIT
PIT -298 · ATL +240
Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- PIT rating -2.8, ATL rating -5.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to PIT.
- Predicted margin is PIT by 4.8.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 4.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is PIT, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
ATL
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
PIT
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
- QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Model home 4.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.