The Sunday Slate

Market vs model

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

• HOU rating 0.9, BUF rating 5.7.
• Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Home field adds 2.4 to HOU.
• Predicted margin is BUF by 2.4.
• There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
• Model away 2.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
• No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

Injuries

• OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
• QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
• QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
• QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
• QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
• QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
• QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
• QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
• QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
• QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.