Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00pm CT · EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL · CBSFinal
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 0-1 · Away
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+8.5 (-105)
+360
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-0 · Home
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
-8.5 (-115)
-470
EverBank Stadium at kickoff: 78°F, wind 9 mph, gusts 24 mph, 6% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
JAX -8.5
JAX -8.5 (-115)
CLE +8.5 (-105)
Model
JAX -11.3
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
JAX
JAX -470 · CLE +360
Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • JAX rating 2.6, CLE rating -6.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to JAX.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 11.3.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 11.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 8.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is JAX, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CLE

FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 11.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 8.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML