Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00pm CT · Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH · FOXFinal
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-1 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-108)
+164
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals · AFC North · 1-0 · Home
FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-112)
-198
Paycor Stadium at kickoff: 63°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 16 mph, 12% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CIN -3.5
CIN -3.5 (-112)
TB +3.5 (-108)
Model
CIN -5.1
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CIN
CIN -198 · TB +164
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CIN rating 1.7, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CIN.
  • Predicted margin is CIN by 5.1.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 5.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is CIN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

CIN

FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
  • OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 5.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML