Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Sep 14 · 7:15pm CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · ESPNFinal
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 0-1 · Away
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-112)
+110
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 1-0 · Home
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-108)
-130
Arrowhead at kickoff: 70°F, wind 9 mph, gusts 13 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
KC -2.5
KC -2.5 (-108)
DEN +2.5 (-112)
Model
KC -7.1
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
KC -130 · DEN +110
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • KC rating 4.5, DEN rating -0.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to KC.
  • Predicted margin is KC by 7.1.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 7.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 4.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 7.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 4.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML