Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
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Thu, Sep 17 · 7:15pm CT · Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY · Prime VideoFinal
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
+5.5 (-115)
+200
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Home
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-5.5 (-105)
-245
Highmark Stadium at kickoff: 58°F, wind 9 mph, gusts 22 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BUF -5.5
BUF -5.5 (-105)
DET +5.5 (-115)
Model
BUF -5.7
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
BUF -245 · DET +200
Total 54.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • BUF rating 5.7, DET rating 2.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to BUF.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 5.7.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 5.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DET

FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
  • QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
  • Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 5.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML