The Sunday Slate

Market vs model

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

• ATL rating -5.2, CAR rating -1.4.
• Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
• Predicted margin is CAR by 1.4.
• There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
• Model away 1.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap -3.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
• No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

Injuries

• OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
• QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
• Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
• Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
• Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
• QuestionableJaelan Phillips · Carolina Panthers
• QuestionableNick Scott · Carolina Panthers
• QuestionableDevin Lloyd · Carolina Panthers
• QuestionableJalen Coker · Carolina Panthers
• Injured ReserveJonathon Brooks · Carolina Panthers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.