The Sunday Slate

Market vs model

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

• HOU rating 0.9, CIN rating 1.7.
• Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Home field adds 2.4 to HOU.
• Predicted margin is HOU by 1.6.
• There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
• Model home 1.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap -0.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
• Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
• No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

Injuries

• OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
• QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
• QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
• QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
• QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
• QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
• OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
• QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
• Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
• Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.