Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00pm CT · Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL · CBSFinal
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+8.5 (-115)
+330
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
-8.5 (-105)
-425
Raymond James Stadium at kickoff: 81°F, wind 4 mph, gusts 14 mph, 34% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
TB -8.5
TB -8.5 (-105)
CLE +8.5 (-115)
Model
TB -7.6
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
TB
TB -425 · CLE +330
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML loss

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • TB rating -1.1, CLE rating -6.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to TB.
  • Predicted margin is TB by 7.6.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 7.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is TB, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CLE

FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 7.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML