Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 20 · 3:05pm CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO · CBSFinal
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-105)
+120
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-115)
-142
Empower Field at kickoff: 70°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 17 mph, 20% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DEN -2.5
DEN -2.5 (-115)
JAX +2.5 (-105)
Model
JAX -0.5
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
DEN -142 · JAX +120
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DEN rating -0.3, JAX rating 2.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DEN.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 0.5.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model away 0.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model away 0.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.