Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Sep 20 · 3:25pm CT · Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA · FOXFinal
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Away
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+12.5 (-110)
+600
SF
San Francisco 49ers · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA
-12.5 (-110)
-900
Levi's Stadium at kickoff: 75°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 16 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
SF -12.5
SF -12.5 (-110)
MIA +12.5 (-110)
MIA +12.5 (-110)
Model
SF -17.8
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SF
SF -900 · MIA +600
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- SF rating 7.3, MIA rating -8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to SF.
- Predicted margin is SF by 17.8.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 17.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 15.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is SF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
MIA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
SF
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
- Injured ReserveC.J. West · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableMike Evans · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableRomello Height · San Francisco 49ers
- DoubtfulJames Thompson Jr. · San Francisco 49ers
- OutDemarcus Robinson · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Model home 17.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 15.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.