Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00pm CT · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA · CBSFinal
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-102)
+180
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-118)
-218
Gillette Stadium at kickoff: 52°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 12 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NE -4.5
NE -4.5 (-118)
PIT +4.5 (-102)
Model
NE -7.2
Edge —
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NE
NE -218 · PIT +180
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NE rating 2, PIT rating -2.8.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NE.
  • Predicted margin is NE by 7.2.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model home 7.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NE, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

PIT

FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Model home 7.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML