Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Thu, Sep 24 · 7:15pm CT · Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI · Prime Video7:15pm CT
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-105)
+200
GB
Green Bay Packers · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-115)
-245
Lambeau Field at kickoff: 61°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 8 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
GB -4.5
GB -4.5 (-115)
ATL +4.5 (-105)
ATL +4.5 (-105)
Model
GB -8.1
Edge 3.6 pts GB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
GB
GB -245 · ATL +200
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- GB rating 0.5, ATL rating -5.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to GB.
- Predicted margin is GB by 8.1.
- Edge is 3.6 points toward GB.
- Edge 3.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is GB, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
ATL
- Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
GB
- W@ NYJ 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ MIN 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs ARI 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ DEN 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
- L@ PIT 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- OutAaron Banks · Green Bay Packers
- OutWarren Brinson · Green Bay Packers
- QuestionableJavon Hargrave · Green Bay Packers
- OutJayden Reed · Green Bay Packers
- OutZach Bako-Bewele · Green Bay Packers
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 3.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.