Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00pm CT · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA · CBS12:00pm CT
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals · AFC North · 2-0 · Away
FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-115)
-192
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-105)
+160
Acrisure Stadium at kickoff: 70°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 15 mph, 1% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CIN -3.5
PIT +3.5 (-105)
CIN -3.5 (-115)
Model
CIN -2.1
Edge 1.4 pts PIT
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CIN
PIT +160 · CIN -192
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • PIT rating -2.8, CIN rating 1.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to PIT.
  • Predicted margin is CIN by 2.1.
  • Edge is 1.4 points toward PIT.
  • Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is CIN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

CIN

FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ HOU 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs TB 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ PHI 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs CHI 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs DET 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

PIT

FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ NE 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs ATL 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BUF 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs NYJ 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Wvs GB 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
  • OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML