Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00pm CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN · CBS · Indoor12:00pm CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-115)
-142
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-105)
+120
Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
HOU -2.5
IND +2.5 (-105)
HOU -2.5 (-115)
Model
IND -0.5
Edge 3 pts IND
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
IND +120 · HOU -142
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • IND rating -1.1, HOU rating 0.9.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to IND.
  • Predicted margin is IND by 0.5.
  • Edge is 3 points toward IND.
  • Edge 3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

HOU

FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

IND

FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
  • QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
  • OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts
  • OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.