Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00pm CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL · CBS12:00pm CT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-10.5 (-115)
-650
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+10.5 (-105)
+470
Hard Rock Stadium at kickoff: 85°F, wind 8 mph, gusts 6 mph, 5% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
KC -10.5
MIA +10.5 (-105)
KC -10.5 (-115)
Model
KC -10.1
Edge 0.4 pts MIA
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
MIA +470 · KC -650
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • MIA rating -8, KC rating 4.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to MIA.
  • Predicted margin is KC by 10.1.
  • Edge is 0.4 points toward MIA.
  • Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -12.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

MIA

FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -12.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML