Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00pm CT · MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ · CBS12:00pm CT
TEN
Tennessee Titans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-120)
+120
NYG
New York Giants · NFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI -6.6 · rank -4.993 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (+100)
-142
MetLife Stadium at kickoff: 57°F, wind 17 mph, gusts 34 mph, 53% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NYG -3
NYG -3 (+100)
TEN +3 (-120)
Model
NYG -0.5
Edge 2.5 pts TEN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
NYG -142 · TEN +120
Total 39.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NYG rating -6.6, TEN rating -4.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NYG.
  • Predicted margin is NYG by 0.5.
  • Edge is 2.5 points toward TEN.
  • Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TEN

FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs PHI 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs NYJ 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs CHI 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs SEA 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. W@ SF 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

NYG

FPI -6.6 · rank -4.993 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ LAR 28-6 · Mon, Sep 21
  2. Wvs DAL 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ NYJ 23-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ MIA 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs MIN 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableAndrew Thomas · New York Giants
  • QuestionableDeonte Banks · New York Giants
  • QuestionableTyler Nubin · New York Giants
  • QuestionableBrian Burns · New York Giants
  • QuestionableShelby Harris · New York Giants
  • QuestionableCor'Dale Flott · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTony Pollard · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTyjae Spears · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableSolomon Thomas · Tennessee Titans
  • Injured ReserveMilo Eifler · Tennessee Titans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.