Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Sep 27 · 7:20pm CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO · NBC7:20pm CT
LAR
Los Angeles Rams · NFC West · 1-1 · Away
FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-112)
-135
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-108)
+114
Empower Field at kickoff: 81°F, wind 13 mph, gusts 17 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAR -2.5
DEN +2.5 (-108)
LAR -2.5 (-112)
Model
LAR -2.6
Edge 0.1 pts LAR
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
LAR
DEN +114 · LAR -135
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DEN rating -0.3, LAR rating 4.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DEN.
  • Predicted margin is LAR by 2.6.
  • Edge is 0.1 points toward LAR.
  • Edge 0.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is LAR, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

LAR

FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs NYG 28-6 · Mon, Sep 21
  2. Lvs SF 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
  3. W@ LAC 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs NO 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ KC 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableKamren Kinchens · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableNate Landman · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableJordan Whittington · Los Angeles Rams
  • Injured ReserveRonnie Rivers · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableColby Parkinson · Los Angeles Rams

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML