Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Sep 28 · 7:15pm CT · Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · ESPN7:15pm CT
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles · NFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 1.5 · rank 0.641 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-115)
-225
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-105)
+185
Soldier Field at kickoff: 65°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 11 mph, 0% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
PHI -4.5
CHI +4.5 (-105)
PHI -4.5 (-115)
Model
CHI -0.3
Edge 4.8 pts CHI
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CHI +185 · PHI -225
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CHI rating -0.5, PHI rating 1.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CHI.
  • Predicted margin is CHI by 0.3.
  • Edge is 4.8 points toward CHI.
  • Edge 4.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

PHI

FPI 1.5 · rank 0.641 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ TEN 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs WSH 24-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs CIN 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ NE 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ BAL 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15

CHI

FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
  • OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
  • OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
  • QuestionableJonathan Greenard · Philadelphia Eagles
  • DoubtfulDallas Goedert · Philadelphia Eagles
  • QuestionableSaquon Barkley · Philadelphia Eagles
  • Injured ReserveLandon Dickerson · Philadelphia Eagles
  • Injured ReserveEli Stowers · Philadelphia Eagles

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.