Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Oct 1 · 7:15pm CT · Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH · Prime Video7:15pm CT
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-105)
-155
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-115)
+130
Huntington Bank Field at kickoff: 65°F, wind 15 mph, gusts 28 mph, 28% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
PIT -3
CLE +3 (-115)
PIT -3 (-105)
Model
PIT -1
Edge 2 pts CLE
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CLE +130 · PIT -155
Total 38.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CLE rating -6.2, PIT rating -2.8.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CLE.
  • Predicted margin is PIT by 1.
  • Edge is 2 points toward CLE.
  • Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

PIT

FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ NE 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs ATL 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BUF 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs NYJ 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. Wvs GB 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13

CLE

FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ TB 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ JAX 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs NE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs BUF 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ CHI 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns
  • QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
  • QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.