Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
DAL
Dallas Cowboys · NFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+136
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-162
ESPN marks this building indoor. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
HOU -3
HOU -3 (-110)
DAL +3 (-110)
Model
HOU -0.2
Edge 2.8 pts DAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
HOU -162 · DAL +136
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • HOU rating 0.9, DAL rating 3.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to HOU.
  • Predicted margin is HOU by 0.2.
  • Edge is 2.8 points toward DAL.
  • Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DAL

FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs WSH 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ NYG 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs NO 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ ARI 34-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ SEA 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

HOU

FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
  • QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
  • DoubtfulMalik Hooker · Dallas Cowboys
  • QuestionableDeMarvion Overshown · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutCobie Durant · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutP.J. Locke · Dallas Cowboys
  • Injured ReserveMalik Davis · Dallas Cowboys

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.