Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH · CBS12:00pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-110)
+136
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals · AFC North · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (-110)
-162
Paycor Stadium at kickoff: 70°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 23 mph, 20% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CIN -3
CIN -3 (-110)
JAX +3 (-110)
Model
CIN -1.4
Edge 1.6 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CIN -162 · JAX +136
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CIN rating 1.7, JAX rating 2.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CIN.
  • Predicted margin is CIN by 1.4.
  • Edge is 1.6 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

CIN

FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ HOU 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs TB 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ PHI 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs CHI 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs DET 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
  • OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.