Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Soldier Field · Chicago, IL · FOX12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York Jets · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI -3.3 · rank -2.733 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-118)
+145
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-102)
-175
Soldier Field at kickoff: 76°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 14 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
CHI -3.5
CHI -3.5 (-102)
NYJ +3.5 (-118)
NYJ +3.5 (-118)
Model
CHI -5.1
Edge 1.6 pts CHI
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CHI
CHI -175 · NYJ +145
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- CHI rating -0.5, NYJ rating -3.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to CHI.
- Predicted margin is CHI by 5.1.
- Edge is 1.6 points toward CHI.
- Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is CHI, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
NYJ
- Lvs GB 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ TEN 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs NYG 23-6 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ PIT 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
- Lvs TB 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKene Nwangwu · New York Jets
- QuestionableMinkah Fitzpatrick · New York Jets
- QuestionableJoseph Ossai · New York Jets
- Injured ReserveArian Smith · New York Jets
- Injured ReserveDavid Onyemata · New York Jets
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.