Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD · CBS12:00pm CT
TEN
Tennessee Titans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA
+10.5 (-110)
+440
BAL
Baltimore Ravens · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA
-10.5 (-110)
-600
M&T Bank Stadium at kickoff: 65°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 16 mph, 17% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BAL -10.5
BAL -10.5 (-110)
TEN +10.5 (-110)
Model
BAL -11.2
Edge 0.8 pts BAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BAL
BAL -600 · TEN +440
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • BAL rating 4.1, TEN rating -4.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to BAL.
  • Predicted margin is BAL by 11.3.
  • Edge is 0.8 points toward BAL.
  • Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TEN

FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs PHI 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs NYJ 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs CHI 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Wvs SEA 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. W@ SF 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

BAL

FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs NO 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ IND 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs WSH 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ MIN 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs PHI 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChris Moore · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableRonnie Stanley · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableZion Young · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableJohn Simpson · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableMalaki Starks · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableCor'Dale Flott · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTony Pollard · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableTyjae Spears · Tennessee Titans
  • QuestionableSolomon Thomas · Tennessee Titans
  • Injured ReserveMilo Eifler · Tennessee Titans

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML