Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:05pm CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN · FOX · Indoor3:05pm CT
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Away
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+10.5 (-110)
+490
MIN
Minnesota Vikings · NFC North · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA
-10.5 (-110)
-675
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
MIN -10.5
MIN -10.5 (-110)
MIA +10.5 (-110)
Model
MIN -11.9
Edge 1.4 pts MIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
MIN
MIN -675 · MIA +490
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • MIN rating 1.5, MIA rating -8.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to MIN.
  • Predicted margin is MIN by 11.9.
  • Edge is 1.4 points toward MIN.
  • Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 9.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is MIN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

MIA

FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

MIN

FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ CHI 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs GB 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ DEN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs BAL 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYG 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableDeeJay Dallas · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJalen Redmond · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableNick Samac · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableBrian O'Neill · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableJake Golday · Minnesota Vikings
  • QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 9.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML