Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA · CBS3:25pm CT
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-115)
+170
SF
San Francisco 49ers · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-105)
-205
Levi's Stadium at kickoff: 83°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 6 mph, 1% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
SF -4.5
SF -4.5 (-105)
DEN +4.5 (-115)
DEN +4.5 (-115)
Model
SF -10
Edge 5.5 pts SF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SF
SF -205 · DEN +170
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- SF rating 7.3, DEN rating -0.3.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to SF.
- Predicted margin is SF by 10.
- Edge is 5.5 points toward SF.
- Edge 5.5 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 7.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is SF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
DEN
- Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
- Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
- W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
SF
- Wvs MIA 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs LAR 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
- W@ LV 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
- W@ LAC 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs TEN 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- Injured ReserveC.J. West · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableMike Evans · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableRomello Height · San Francisco 49ers
- DoubtfulJames Thompson Jr. · San Francisco 49ers
- OutDemarcus Robinson · San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
- QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
- QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
- QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
- OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.