Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Lumen Field · Seattle, WA · CBS3:25pm CT
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
+6.5 (-110)
+235
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · NFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA
-6.5 (-110)
-290
Lumen Field at kickoff: 62°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 6 mph, 7% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
SEA -6.5
SEA -6.5 (-110)
LAC +6.5 (-110)
Model
SEA -6.5
Edge 0 pts LAC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
SEA
SEA -290 · LAC +235
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • SEA rating 2.8, LAC rating -1.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to SEA.
  • Predicted margin is SEA by 6.5.
  • Edge is 0 points toward LAC.
  • Edge 0 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is SEA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

LAC

FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

SEA

FPI 2.8 · rank -0.492 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ ARI 31-7 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs NE 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. T@ KC 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TEN 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
  5. Lvs DAL 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableTy Okada · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableErnest Jones IV · Seattle Seahawks
  • Injured ReserveAnthony Bradford · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableCooper Kupp · Seattle Seahawks
  • QuestionableGeorge Holani · Seattle Seahawks
  • DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML